Trainer/Jockey Combination Win Percentage

There is a factor that I look at when delving deeper into the horses in a race and that is the Trainer/Jockey Combination Win Percentage.  I look at who has trained the horse, who will be riding the horse and importantly "How well have the Trainer and Jockey done together in the past?".  With Horsegrader, I only need to look at a single cell for the answer.  Let's look at the following Trainer screen snippet for an example:

 
From the Trainer screen snippet I can quickly determine that Bad Debt and Lighthouse Sound have a Trainer/Jockey Combination Win Percentage of 25% with a green thumbs up.  The best in this race.  And to prove my point, Bad Debt and Lighthouse Sound finished first and second!

One final tip before we conclude today is you can just hover over the horse's name to get the trainer and jockey for any horse as illustrated below:

With the hover-over popup I see that Michael J. Trombetta is riding Bad Debt.  There is no need to go to the Jockey or Trainer screen if you were just looking for the name.  

Live Races & Practice Races

New and intermediate horse players tell me that they really like that they can learn how to handicap a horse race with Horsegrader risk free.  With Practices Races you are able to learn how Horsegrader works to handicap a race that already has been run, place a practice wager, watch a video replay and then view the results.  Now that you are "In the Know", the next question I'm asked is 'How do I put my new found skills to work handicapping live races, say the upcoming Belmont Stakes?'.  You'll need to simply switch from Practice Races to Live Races.  All you need to do is change your choice in the Status Drop-Down seen here:

Not sure what the difference is Practice Races and Live Races?  Well, just hover over the Status Drop-Down and the following help will appear:

Of course you'll need to purchase a Race Card subscription to handicap live races.  Just click on the Handicap Button for any race and the following pop-up window will appear if you don't have an active subscription:

Time to put your handicapping skills to work!

Speed Figures - Advanced - The Grid

In the previous post I covered how to compare Speed Figures for specific horses. Now I could have selected every horse in the line graph, but I find that results in a cluttered screen. In this post I'm going to take it to the next level by using horsegrader to compare all the horses in the grid. In order to change views, I select the third option from the pull down menu on the Speed Figures Screen:

Let's look at the results together in the following image (just click on the image for a larger view):

When I first saw this screen, I thought 'Wow, this is a bunch of information!'. After a bit of understanding the legend, I learned how to make use of the screen. Each cell in the grid represents a race and the colors represent surface and days-past. Days-past is represented by the color of the line in each cell as follows:
Green - 45 days or less
Blue - 46 to 90 days
Yellow - 91 to 180 days
Red - 181 days or more
The legend for the surface is included in the speed figure text - I'll use a speed figure of 109:
109 - Black - Dirt
109 - Green - Turf
109 - Blue - Synthetic

By looking at the Speed Figures Grid image, I can quickly see that Johannesburg Smile's previous race had a 109 speed figure on dirt run 46 to 90 days ago and two races ago a 98 speed figure on turf also in 46 to 90 day range.

I now use this screen quite a lot to get a quick snapshot of the speed in the race and how current is each speed figure. At a glance I can see horses that have been raced a lot in the past 45 days, horses coming off a long layoff, horses with a speed figure anomaly, surface movement, etc.

I know that it'll take a bit of study to understand the Speed Figure Grid, but I believe that you'll agree that it is worth the effort.

Speed Figures - Compare Horses

In the previous post I covered the basics of Speed Figures. In this post I'm going to take it to the next level by using RaceQuest to compare three horses. After looking at the basic speed figures, I decided to see how Socialsaul, Johannesburg Smile and Smokin Hero compare to each other speed-wise. In order to change views, I select the second option from the pull down menu on the Speed Figures Screen:

Let's look at the results together in the following image (just click on the image for a larger view):

It is very easy for me to see that Socialsaul, Johannesburg Smile and Smokin Hero have all recently run competitive speed figures - their most recent race is the rightmost race. I can also see at a glance that Socialsaul has only raced five times, Johannesburg Smile has been very consistent over time and Smokin Hero last four races have almost identical speed figures (100, 102, 104 & 104).

I'm going to end my entry today with a image of what happens when I hover the speed figure icons from three races past:

Three races past, Socialsaul had a 102 speed figure on dirt at 1 mile 91 days ago, Johannesburg Smile had a 103 speed figure on dirt at 1 mile 97 days ago and Smokin Hero had a 102 speed figure on dirt at 6 furlongs 117 days ago. Which horse do you think would be my pick?

Pretty cool, don't you think?

Speed Figures - The Basics

I always review the speed figures when handicapping a race. Stating the obvious, the higher the speed figure the better. I'll provide some insight into speed figure basics in this post and then author a couple of follow-up posts highlighting speed figure options within horsegrader . Let's start with a horsegrader Speed Figures Screen Image (just click on the image for an expanded view):

I can take a look at the screen image and quickly see which horse has the Top Speed Figure. I can also quickly see the last speed figure, the best speed figure at the distance of the race, best speed figure on the race surface, and lifetime best speed figure for each horse. Notice that for three horses this will be their first race at this distance so they don't have any speed figures in the distance column. If I want, I can sort on any of the columns just by clicking on the column header.

I look at Speed Figures since my calculations have shown that the Top speed horse (Highest Speed Figure) wins 28.5% and is In-The-Money (ITM) 63.4% of the time. That is pretty impressive. I have noticed that there is some variance with surface and distance, which led to me doing the following calculations:

• Dirt/Sprint: Wins - 29.6% and ITM - 64.8%
• Dirt/Route: Wins - 28.6% and ITM - 63.7%
• Turf/Sprint: Wins - 28.5% and ITM - 58.0%
• Turf/Route: Wins - 23.8% and ITM - 55.9%

Hopefully these insights on speed figures will help you with your handicapping. As I stated earlier, I'll provide more on speed figures in upcoming posts. In the meantime, let me know if you have any questions.

Claiming Price, Purse and Conditions

I recently received the following comment: 'Thanks for such a cool product. I would like to see the claiming price of the race and conditions of the race when handicapping since it gives me an idea of the quality of the horses in the race. - Kathleen'.

There were two new values recently added to horsegrader -- Claiming Price & Purse on the Race Selection Screen -- that I find really useful when handicapping a race. Here is a screen snippet image from the Race Selection screen that highlights an enhanced display with a race from March 24 at Aqueduct:

I find it very helpful that I can now easily see the name of the stakes race and the purse. The next screen snippet image shows the claiming price:

Additional information is available today but somewhat hidden. To see the conditions of a race, just hover over the Class on the Race Selection screen with your mouse. Here is a sample:

I most certainly appreciate interest in horsegrader and please keep the suggestions and questions coming.

How to read the Key Factors screen - Form (Previous Race Performance)

In a previous post I talked about how the "Class Ability" value for a horse in determined. One of the key takeaways from that post is that "Class Ability" looks at the horse's performance for the past year. Today I'm going to give you some insight into how the "Form" value is determined. Handicappers, myself included, want to now how a horse has done lately. Well, "Form" is how the horse did in their previous race.

If the horse ran a "bad" race the last time out I look for reasons that he will return to form after a correction or change. Likewise, I don't take for granted that a horse will follow-up a "good" race with another "good" race due to having run a taxing race, lacks recovery time, suffered an injury or is moving up in class.

Let's start by looking at Race 2 at Aqueduct on April 11th in the following condensed screen shot:

Here are the definitions:

Good (Green) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished In The Money (ITM), or within two lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within three lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Que Posse (1st of 7; 2 1/2 lengths ahead) meets this criteria in the above screen snippet.

Neutral (White) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the top 2/3 of the field, or within five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Arch Traveler (5th of 5, 3 lengths back) meets this criteria in the above screen snippet.

Bad (Red) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the bottom 1/3 of the field, or more than five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or more than seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Justin Phillip (6th of 6; 8 lengths back) meets this criteria in the above screen.

Not Enough Information (circle with the line) - Horse has not raced before; this is their first race.

How to read the Key Factors screen - Class Ability

I really like the horsegrader Key Factors screen since there is a tremendous amount of information. I really like that at a glance I can establish good (Green), bad (Red) or neutral for a given horse and a specific attribute. Today I'm going to give you some insight into how 'Class Ability' is determined. Let's start by looking at Race 9 at Aqueduct on March 14th in the following condensed screen shot:

Here are the definitions:

Good (Green) -- Within the last year the horse has run a race at the class level of the race today and finished In The Money (ITM), or within two lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within three lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Sweet Hot Toddy, Jolienne and Hillsboro Bay meet this criteria in the above screen.

Neutral (White) -- Within the last year the horse has run a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the top 2/3 of the field, or within five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Soccittomebaby meets this criteria in the above screen.

Bad (Red) -- Within the last year the horse has run a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the bottom 1/3 of the field, or more than five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or more than seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Lagniappe meets this criteria in the above screen.

Not Enough Information (circle with the line) - The horse has not run a race at the class level of the race today in the past year. Clean Jean meets this criteria

Advanced Topic - Past Performances

One of the great things about horsegrader is it means all the work of deciphering the large amount of data contained in a racing form has already been done for me. However, there are times that I would like to see past performances for a couple of horses. To see the past performances just click on the arrow to left of the horse name as illustrated in the following screen image:

I suggest that you click on the above screen image for a detailed view. I really like the fact that horsegrader has more information available as my handicapping knowledge increases. 

How to read the Key Factors screen - Race Surface

The track surface is something I consider when handicapping a race since some horses run better on dirt, some jockeys may be turf specialists and some trainers may have a great record on synthetic. From the key factors screen I quickly determine how the horse, jockey and trainer do for the surface of the specific race. Let's take a look.

I see that the trainer for Honey Mou (#6) has a positive 20% win percentage on dirt, the jockey has a positive 17% on dirt and that Honey Mou has won 1/4 (25%) of her races on dirt. Not bad at all. In Her Hey Day (#4) doesn't look as promising since she has an average record on dirt since her Record cell is average (white -- neither red or green) and two red cells for for Trainer (11%) and Jockey (7%).

What do you think?

What was that race again?

My memory is good, it is just short! Sometimes when I'm looking at a race I forget details such as length and distance. No worries though, since I just click on the arrow next to the race track, race date and race number.

Once I click, the following race details display:

I even get to see a track image. Now, wasn't that easy?

How to read the Key Factors screen - Speed & Pace

Building on what we learned so far, let's cover speed and pace now. I like to know if the horse has competitive speed and pace compared to the rest of the horses in the race. It is fairly obvious to me since all I need to look for is a green COMP in both the speed and pace columns. Here is an example:

One other value is Top, for the horse with the fastest speed or pace figure.  The Top speed horse in our example is Neenie'S House.

Another tip from me, your buddy The Professor, is that the Top Speed horse wins 28% of the time and is in the money 64% of the time.

How to read the Key Factors screen - Running Style

There are 4 running styles in total, with 3 basic running styles and one special case. Take a look at the horses in the following race and you'll see the 3 basic running styles and that one horse has not yet developed a running style listed as 'No Form':

Here is my basic explanation:

• Front Runner - Likes to be right at the front of the pack from the starting gate to the finish line.
• Stalker - Likes to hang back just a bit and break to the front in the home stretch.
• Closer - Likes to stay in the back of the pack and make a huge push in the home stretch.

The special case mentioned earlier is a 'Lone Speed' horse. There isn't one in this race, but a Lone Speed horse is when the race only has one Front Runner whose strategy will be to be in first place from wire to wire.

As an aside, I think that it is usually worth considering placing a bet on a Lone Speed horse.

How to read the Key Factors screen - The Basics

Today we are going to take a look at the Key Factors screen and I'm going to share with you a couple of my tips:

You can click on the above image to view a larger image if you wish.

Although it may be obvious, the first thing that I look for are GREEN Thumbs Up. GREEN is good and good is defined as above average. RED Thumbs Down is not good, and not good is defined as below average. A white cell, you guessed it, means average.