Monday, May 7, 2012

How to read the Key Factors screen - Form (Previous Race Performance)

In a previous post I talked about how the "Class Ability" value for a horse in determined. One of the key takeaways from that post is that "Class Ability" looks at the horse's performance for the past year. Today I'm going to give you some insight into how the "Form" value is determined. Handicappers, myself included, want to now how a horse has done lately. Well, "Form" is how the horse did in their previous race.

If the horse ran a "bad" race the last time out I look for reasons that he will return to form after a correction or change. Likewise, I don't take for granted that a horse will follow-up a "good" race with another "good" race due to having run a taxing race, lacks recovery time, suffered an injury or is moving up in class.

Let's start by looking at Race 2 at Aqueduct on April 11th in the following condensed screen shot:

Here are the definitions:


Good (Green) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished In The Money (ITM), or within two lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within three lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Que Posse (1st of 7; 2 1/2 lengths ahead) meets this criteria in the above screen snippet.

Neutral (White) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the top 2/3 of the field, or within five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Arch Traveler (5th of 5, 3 lengths back) meets this criteria in the above screen snippet.

Bad (Red) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the bottom 1/3 of the field, or more than five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or more than seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Justin Phillip (6th of 6; 8 lengths back) meets this criteria in the above screen.

Not Enough Information (circle with the line) - Horse has not raced before; this is their first race.

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