Thursday, June 7, 2012

Grade 1 Stake Races

I'll be at the Belmont Stakes this Saturday (June 9th) and possibly will be witnessing a Triple Crown winner.  So, of course, I used Horsegrader to handicap the race and want to share my experience with you.  Let's look at the Key Factors screen:


I bet you see the same thing that I see - lots of green.  This makes perfect sense since a Grade 1 Stakes Race such as the Belmont Stakes attracts the best of the best.  Best horses, best jockeys, best trainers, etc.  So we need to dig a bit deeper and look at the percentages. Click on the image for larger view.  In the larger view we can see that I'll Have Another has a dirt win percentage of 83%, Union Rags has a dirt win percentage of 57% and Paynter has a dirt win percentage of 50%.  Unstoppable U has a dirt win percentage of 100% but we can see in Class column that Unstoppable U has never run at this Class of Race before. 

So, you need to dig deeper (Speed Figures, Race Shape, Past Performances, etc.) when handicapping a Grade 1 Stakes Race because of all the green.  Who is your pick to win the Belmont Stakes?  Will I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown?  If you are going to be at the Belmont Stakes make sure to stop by the Horsegrader booth and say Hi!

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