Thursday, June 28, 2012

Race Shape - Post Position

In the previous post I covered the basics of Horsegrader's Race Shape. This week I'll do a deeper dive on how Post Position enters into Race Shape. Let's Look at a screen snippet that shows how each Running Style statistically performs by Post Position:


Since the pie chart for outside position is 100% blue, we can easily see that only Closers win from an outside Post Position.  This raises the question 'How do I determine the post position for a horse?'.  I use a two-step process by first looking at the Post Position Impact pie chart:


I can see from the Post Position Impact pie chart shows that this course favors the Middle Post Positions with a 54% Win Percentage. Now, I perform step two by looking at the color of the rectangle to the left of each horse. I'll illustrate by showing you the three stalkers in this race since they cover the Inside (positions 1-4), Middle (positions 5-8) and Outside (positions 9+) Post Positions:


Headingtothecity has a Blue rectangle indicating an inside Post Position, Powerful Instinct has a Yellow rectangle indicating a Middle Post Position and Disco On has a Purple rectangle indicating an Outside Post Position.  We now have another piece of information that we can use to make our pick. 

One final note: Program Number is not the same as Post Position.  For example, a horse with a Program Number of 1A could have the 8th Post Position.

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