Race Shape Basics

In my previous post I recounted my experience at the Belmont Stakes and how I used the Horsegrader Race Shape screen to narrow my picks to Paynter and Union Rags. Not to brag but Union Rags finished first and Paynter was second by 1/2 length. In this post, I'll introduce you to the basics of the Race Shape screen. The best place to start is with a screen shot:

 Click on the image for a larger view

From the screen shot you'll note that the horses are divided into three categories - 1) Front Runners, 2) Stalkers and 3) Closers. In our example we have three Front Runners, three Stalkers and eight Closers. The question I ask is 'Does this course and distance favor a certain running style?'.  Race Shape answers that question. But first, what is the course and distance for our example? Well, just hover over the small triangle to the right of the track name and the following screen snippet will appear:

So, this turf race run on the inner track with a distance of 1 & 1/8 mile.  By looking at the following screen snippet we can easily answer our question:

From the snippet we determine that this course and distance (often referred to as Track Bias) favors Stalkers with a 45% Win Percentage.  Closers are second with a 34% Win Percentage and Front Runners have a hard time cracking the winners' circle with only a 21% Win Percentage. I found that as I increased my handicapping knowledge I almost always check out Race Shape. 

We just scratched the surface today. We'll continue to explore  Race Shape in future posts. In the meantime, let me know if you have any questions.