I'll continue with our theme of new features available in Horsegrader 3.0 by covering past performances. Prior to Horsegrader 3.0, past performances were only available from the Key Factors screen. With Horsegrader 3.0, past performances are still available on the Key Factors screen and now can also be accessed from the Speed Figures, Jockey and Trainer screens. To display the past performances for any horse, simply click on the plus sign (+) to the right of the horse. Here is an example of expanded past performances on the Jockey screen:
Click on the Jockey screen above to view a larger image and you'll see that I just happened to expand two horses, Gantry and Parent's Honor, who finished first in their last race!
Friday, September 7, 2012
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Race Selection
I personally found it to be a bit cumbersome to have to return to the Horsgrader Race Selection screen whenever I wanted to look at another race at the same track. Well, with the release of version 3.0 that is no longer an issue. Now, all I have to do is click on the pull down arrow next to the current race number and the following screen snippet appears:
One aspect that I really like about this new Horsegrader feature is that the list provides me with great summary information (i.e. Class, Purse or Claiming Price, Distance, Surface, Age Restriction and Post Time. From the summary information I can quickly decide if a race is worth a look. I'm certain that you also will find the Race Selection feature to be a quite a time saver.
One aspect that I really like about this new Horsegrader feature is that the list provides me with great summary information (i.e. Class, Purse or Claiming Price, Distance, Surface, Age Restriction and Post Time. From the summary information I can quickly decide if a race is worth a look. I'm certain that you also will find the Race Selection feature to be a quite a time saver.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Release 3.0 Sneak Preview
I've been informed that we are about to release version 3.0 of Horsegrader which contains a number of User Interface improvements. The development team shared the new UI with me and I'm going to share a sneak preview of the new and improved tab menu with you. The screens now all have a tab menu interface that provides for easy navigation and reinforcement as to the screen that you are currently on as illustrated in this Key Factors example:
Note how the active tab (Key Factors) is highlighted. I'll reinforce this notion by now showing you the Speed Figures menu:
There is no doubt that I've selected the Speed Figures tab. That's it for this post, and next week I plan on sharing some of the other new features with you.
Note how the active tab (Key Factors) is highlighted. I'll reinforce this notion by now showing you the Speed Figures menu:
There is no doubt that I've selected the Speed Figures tab. That's it for this post, and next week I plan on sharing some of the other new features with you.
Friday, August 10, 2012
How Horsegrader Can Save You Time
As you become more familiar
with Horsegrader you have probably noticed that Horsegrader does a fair amount
of the work for you. Not sure what I mean? Let's look at an example with the
following race:
Our example Race Surface is Turf. That being the case, I'm interested to know how the horse, jockey and trainer will perform on this surface. The Horsegrader software knows that I will be looking for this and displays the answers with easy to read symbols and colors (aka Key Factors).
The horse, jockey and trainer Key Factors show me how they have performed in the past on Turf. I like that Horsegrader does the work for me; saving me the time I would normally spend studying past performance data to determine these Turf values.
With Horsegrader, I’m able to see, with just a quick glance, that the trainer and jockey of Off Limits have positive Turf Values, but that Off Limits has never won of Turf.
Our example Race Surface is Turf. That being the case, I'm interested to know how the horse, jockey and trainer will perform on this surface. The Horsegrader software knows that I will be looking for this and displays the answers with easy to read symbols and colors (aka Key Factors).
The horse, jockey and trainer Key Factors show me how they have performed in the past on Turf. I like that Horsegrader does the work for me; saving me the time I would normally spend studying past performance data to determine these Turf values.
With Horsegrader, I’m able to see, with just a quick glance, that the trainer and jockey of Off Limits have positive Turf Values, but that Off Limits has never won of Turf.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Trainer - Special Conditions
There are 4 Trainer Special Conditions that I find useful when deciding on my pick. The 4 conditions are Trainer: 1. First Start 2. Second Start 3. First Start after Claim and 4. First Start on Surface. The good news is that Horsegrader does all the work for me and all I need to do is look at the condensed Trainer screen:
Click to expand the image
The example shows two horses, Deb's Golden Touch and Smart Believer, making their first start for their respective trainers. The trainer for Deb's Golden Touch, Bruce N. Levine, has a neutral value of 19% for First Start. The trainer for Smart Believer, Richard E. Dutrow Jr., has a positive value of 19% for First Start. If all other factors were even, I'd pick Smart Believer over Deb's Golden Touch because of Richard E. Dutrow Jr.’s excellent record with First Time Starters.
Two horses are making their second start - Bronze Beauty and Mrs. Calabash. Both Todd A. Plether and James A Jenkins both have excellent records of 26% with Second Time Starters. That being the case, I'll need to look at other factors as I make my pick.
Finally, if none of the Trainer Special conditions apply, the Not Enough Information icon is shown.
Friday, July 27, 2012
What if I want to handicap a race now?
In last week’s post we
covered Minutes to Post (MTP). This week, I'll show you the steps to take if
you want to handicap a race in the next 30 minutes or see which tracks have
races starting soon. This is so simple to do in the Horsegrader software! Just
click on the Live Racing button in the task bar on the Race Selection screen:
After clicking you'll see all the races that will be going off in the next 30 minutes, as shown below:
Within this screen you can see the MTP under the Start column (second column from the left). Additionally, the Track, Race Number, Number of Entries, Post Time and Race description are displayed. Given the choices I would pick the 4th Race at Saratoga that starts in 20 minutes. By clicking on the Handicap button, you will be taken directly to that race. Clicking the Track will show you all the races today at that track.
I use the Now Live button whenever I need a quick handicapping fix!
After clicking you'll see all the races that will be going off in the next 30 minutes, as shown below:
Click on the image for a expanded view
Within this screen you can see the MTP under the Start column (second column from the left). Additionally, the Track, Race Number, Number of Entries, Post Time and Race description are displayed. Given the choices I would pick the 4th Race at Saratoga that starts in 20 minutes. By clicking on the Handicap button, you will be taken directly to that race. Clicking the Track will show you all the races today at that track.
I use the Now Live button whenever I need a quick handicapping fix!
Friday, July 20, 2012
Minutes to Post
One
of the coolest things about Horsegrader
is that anyone can easily determine how much time they have to apply their handicapping
skills to an upcoming race. At a glance, I know if I have the time to cover all
my bases or if I should just look at the attributes that I find the most
valuable (i.e. Lone Speed, Top Speed, Race Shape, etc.). Let’s take a look at
a section of the Race Selection screen as shown in the following snippet:
The arrow is indicating the Post Time column, which is showing that there are 18 minutes before the race starts - plenty of time to handicap with Horsegrader! The horse racing term for the countdown to the start of the race is referred to as Minutes To Post (MTP). Horsegrader uses colors to show MTP with Green indicating 15 minutes or more, Yellow indicating 10 to 15 minutes and Red indicating less than 10 minutes. The following two clips show the color change as the MTP is counting down:
Basically, when I see a Red MTP, I know that I have to hurry if I'm going to handicap that race!
The arrow is indicating the Post Time column, which is showing that there are 18 minutes before the race starts - plenty of time to handicap with Horsegrader! The horse racing term for the countdown to the start of the race is referred to as Minutes To Post (MTP). Horsegrader uses colors to show MTP with Green indicating 15 minutes or more, Yellow indicating 10 to 15 minutes and Red indicating less than 10 minutes. The following two clips show the color change as the MTP is counting down:
14 Minutes to Post - Yellow
8 Minutes to Post - Red
Basically, when I see a Red MTP, I know that I have to hurry if I'm going to handicap that race!
Friday, July 13, 2012
Odds and Payout
A young
horseplayer, who is becoming more versed in handicapping, recently asked 'How can I
display the Odds instead of the Payout amount within Horsegrader?' It is fairly
simple to do so and I'll walk you through the steps. Keep in mind that, by
default, Horsegrader shows the Payout for a $2.00 bet. Let's look at a screen
snippet for an illustration:
In this example, a $2.00 bet on Tu Endie Wei would pay out $24.00 for the 11-1 odds (2 x $11.00 + the $2.00 bet = $24.00). The first step to show Odds instead of Payout is to click on the gear in the right-hand toolbar:
The following pop-up appears:
Next select the Odds Format pulldown and select Odds:
Click Save and here is the result:
I'm going to bring this blog entry to a close with a tip on how to easily display the Payout. Just hover over any value in the Odds column and the Finals Odds and Payout and Morning Line and Payout appear for that horse:
Tu Endie Wei Final
Odds were 11-1 with a $24.00 Payout and Morning Line Odds were 15-1 with a
Payout of $32.00.
.
In this example, a $2.00 bet on Tu Endie Wei would pay out $24.00 for the 11-1 odds (2 x $11.00 + the $2.00 bet = $24.00). The first step to show Odds instead of Payout is to click on the gear in the right-hand toolbar:
The following pop-up appears:
Next select the Odds Format pulldown and select Odds:
I'm going to bring this blog entry to a close with a tip on how to easily display the Payout. Just hover over any value in the Odds column and the Finals Odds and Payout and Morning Line and Payout appear for that horse:
.
Friday, July 6, 2012
Race of the Week II - Hollywood Gold Cup
July 7th - Race of the Week II
Betfair Hollywood Park (Race 9) Grade One: The Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap
Professor here again with the second of the two the Horsegrader's race of the week Experts picks. This week we're featuring two races, the second one is the Grade One Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap at a mile and a quarter on the dirt from Betfair Hollywood Park. I am backing last year's runner up Game On Dude, who has top speed figures with an upward speed figures trend. Trained by top trainer Bob Baffert who is winning at 34% for the current meet and has a 27% win percentage when teaming up with jockey Chantal Sutherland.
Diamond Dave likes Richard's Kid who possess positive Key Factors. Both trainer, Bob Baffert and jockey, Rafael Bejarano, excel at today's distance and surface.
Lexington also likes Richard's Kid. Richard's Kid's trainer and jockey have pretty much all green for their Key Factor attributes. Jockey Rafael Bejarano is winning at a 30% clip when he rides Bob Baffert's horses.
Long Shot Larry likes Spud Spivens who ran his best Speed Figure in his last race. With a positive record on today's track at the Gold Cup distance and surface, 15-1 looks like a solid bet for Larry.
Betfair Hollywood Park (Race 9) Grade One: The Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap
Professor here again with the second of the two the Horsegrader's race of the week Experts picks. This week we're featuring two races, the second one is the Grade One Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap at a mile and a quarter on the dirt from Betfair Hollywood Park. I am backing last year's runner up Game On Dude, who has top speed figures with an upward speed figures trend. Trained by top trainer Bob Baffert who is winning at 34% for the current meet and has a 27% win percentage when teaming up with jockey Chantal Sutherland.
Diamond Dave likes Richard's Kid who possess positive Key Factors. Both trainer, Bob Baffert and jockey, Rafael Bejarano, excel at today's distance and surface.
Lexington also likes Richard's Kid. Richard's Kid's trainer and jockey have pretty much all green for their Key Factor attributes. Jockey Rafael Bejarano is winning at a 30% clip when he rides Bob Baffert's horses.
Long Shot Larry likes Spud Spivens who ran his best Speed Figure in his last race. With a positive record on today's track at the Gold Cup distance and surface, 15-1 looks like a solid bet for Larry.
Click on the image for an expanded view
Race of the Week I - United Nations Stakes
July 7th - Race of the Week I
Monmouth Park (Race 11) Grade One: The United Nations
Professor here with one of the two the Horsegrader's race of the week Experts picks. This week we're featuring two races, the first one is the Grade One United Nations from Monmouth Park. I am backing the Colonial Turf Cup winner Turbo Compressor, top speed figures with an upward speed figures trend. Winner of two out of three starts on the turf and all green Key Factor attributes Turbo Compressor should be the favorite.
Diamond Dave likes Al Khali who possess positive Key Factors and a positive post position for the Monmouth turf course. Both trainer, Billy Mott, and jockey, Rosie Napravnik, have excelled at today's distance and surface.
Lexington is also a Turbo Compressor fan. Trainer, Todd Pletcher and jockey Joe Bravo have pretty much all green for their Key Factor attributes. They have been winning at 30% and 26% respectively in the last 30 days.
Long Shot Larry usually has to look a lot harder for a long shot but Al Khali's attributes are obvious. A Competitive Speed horse with both a top notch trainer and jockey is more than Larry usually finds. With morning line odds of 15-1, Larry is thrilled. Look for Al Khali to be running late in the race.
Monmouth Park (Race 11) Grade One: The United Nations
Professor here with one of the two the Horsegrader's race of the week Experts picks. This week we're featuring two races, the first one is the Grade One United Nations from Monmouth Park. I am backing the Colonial Turf Cup winner Turbo Compressor, top speed figures with an upward speed figures trend. Winner of two out of three starts on the turf and all green Key Factor attributes Turbo Compressor should be the favorite.
Diamond Dave likes Al Khali who possess positive Key Factors and a positive post position for the Monmouth turf course. Both trainer, Billy Mott, and jockey, Rosie Napravnik, have excelled at today's distance and surface.
Lexington is also a Turbo Compressor fan. Trainer, Todd Pletcher and jockey Joe Bravo have pretty much all green for their Key Factor attributes. They have been winning at 30% and 26% respectively in the last 30 days.
Long Shot Larry usually has to look a lot harder for a long shot but Al Khali's attributes are obvious. A Competitive Speed horse with both a top notch trainer and jockey is more than Larry usually finds. With morning line odds of 15-1, Larry is thrilled. Look for Al Khali to be running late in the race.
Click on the image for an expanded view
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Post Position - The Simple Way
I’ve put together a short
post this week to demonstrate a simple way to determine the Post Position for a
horse. Last week I provided details on how Post Position enters into Track Bias
and handicapping, and showed examples on how to get Post Position from the
Horsegrader Race Shape screen. Recently, I was reminded that all you need to do
to get the Post Position is to hover over the Program Number of the horse on
any Horsegrader screen. The following pop-up will appear:
Note that although the Program Number is 4, the Post Position for Knight Train is 3. My trick for getting Post Position for a horse is to hover over the name of the horse so the following pop-up will appear:
Post Position appears in the header along with a ton of useful information including the trainer, jockey, record, etc. Now, wasn't that easy?
Note that although the Program Number is 4, the Post Position for Knight Train is 3. My trick for getting Post Position for a horse is to hover over the name of the horse so the following pop-up will appear:
Post Position appears in the header along with a ton of useful information including the trainer, jockey, record, etc. Now, wasn't that easy?
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Race Shape - Post Position
In the
previous post I covered the basics of Horsegrader's Race Shape. This week I'll do
a deeper dive on how Post Position enters into Race Shape. Let's Look at a screen snippet that
shows how each Running Style statistically performs by Post
Position:
Since the pie chart for outside position is 100% blue, we can easily see that only Closers win from an outside Post Position. This raises the question 'How do I determine the post position for a horse?'. I use a two-step process by first looking at the Post Position Impact pie chart:
I can see from the Post Position Impact pie chart shows that this course favors the Middle Post Positions with a 54% Win Percentage. Now, I perform step two by looking at the color of the rectangle to the left of each horse. I'll illustrate by showing you the three stalkers in this race since they cover the Inside (positions 1-4), Middle (positions 5-8) and Outside (positions 9+) Post Positions:
Headingtothecity has a Blue rectangle indicating an inside Post Position, Powerful Instinct has a Yellow rectangle indicating a Middle Post Position and Disco On has a Purple rectangle indicating an Outside Post Position. We now have another piece of information that we can use to make our pick.
One final note: Program Number is not the same as Post Position. For example, a horse with a Program Number of 1A could have the 8th Post Position.
Since the pie chart for outside position is 100% blue, we can easily see that only Closers win from an outside Post Position. This raises the question 'How do I determine the post position for a horse?'. I use a two-step process by first looking at the Post Position Impact pie chart:
I can see from the Post Position Impact pie chart shows that this course favors the Middle Post Positions with a 54% Win Percentage. Now, I perform step two by looking at the color of the rectangle to the left of each horse. I'll illustrate by showing you the three stalkers in this race since they cover the Inside (positions 1-4), Middle (positions 5-8) and Outside (positions 9+) Post Positions:
Headingtothecity has a Blue rectangle indicating an inside Post Position, Powerful Instinct has a Yellow rectangle indicating a Middle Post Position and Disco On has a Purple rectangle indicating an Outside Post Position. We now have another piece of information that we can use to make our pick.
One final note: Program Number is not the same as Post Position. For example, a horse with a Program Number of 1A could have the 8th Post Position.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Race Shape Basics
In my previous post I recounted my experience at the Belmont Stakes and how I used the Horsegrader Race Shape screen to narrow my picks to Paynter and Union Rags. Not to brag but Union Rags finished first and Paynter was second by 1/2 length. In this post, I'll introduce you to the basics of the Race Shape screen. The best place to start is with a screen shot:
From the screen shot you'll note that the horses are divided into three categories - 1) Front Runners, 2) Stalkers and 3) Closers. In our example we have three Front Runners, three Stalkers and eight Closers. The question I ask is 'Does this course and distance favor a certain running style?'. Race Shape answers that question. But first, what is the course and distance for our example? Well, just hover over the small triangle to the right of the track name and the following screen snippet will appear:
So, this turf race run on the inner track with a distance of 1 & 1/8 mile. By looking at the following screen snippet we can easily answer our question:
From the snippet we determine that this course and distance (often referred to as Track Bias) favors Stalkers with a 45% Win Percentage. Closers are second with a 34% Win Percentage and Front Runners have a hard time cracking the winners' circle with only a 21% Win Percentage. I found that as I increased my handicapping knowledge I almost always check out Race Shape.
We just scratched the surface today. We'll continue to explore Race Shape in future posts. In the meantime, let me know if you have any questions.
Click on the image for a larger view
From the screen shot you'll note that the horses are divided into three categories - 1) Front Runners, 2) Stalkers and 3) Closers. In our example we have three Front Runners, three Stalkers and eight Closers. The question I ask is 'Does this course and distance favor a certain running style?'. Race Shape answers that question. But first, what is the course and distance for our example? Well, just hover over the small triangle to the right of the track name and the following screen snippet will appear:
So, this turf race run on the inner track with a distance of 1 & 1/8 mile. By looking at the following screen snippet we can easily answer our question:
From the snippet we determine that this course and distance (often referred to as Track Bias) favors Stalkers with a 45% Win Percentage. Closers are second with a 34% Win Percentage and Front Runners have a hard time cracking the winners' circle with only a 21% Win Percentage. I found that as I increased my handicapping knowledge I almost always check out Race Shape.
We just scratched the surface today. We'll continue to explore Race Shape in future posts. In the meantime, let me know if you have any questions.
Thursday, June 14, 2012
Belmont Stakes
Thanks to everyone that stopped by the Horsegrader booth this past Saturday at the Belmont. What a great day and what an exciting day of racing, especially the Belmont Stakes. So what question do you think that I was asked the most? Well, it went something like 'Dude, who do you think is going to win the next race?'. Two guys were adamant that we handicap Race 9 together, so I called up the race in Horsegrader. We looked at the following Key Factors screen and saw a Lone Speed horse, #7 - Trinniberg, in a Sprint race (7 furlongs for this race):
Click on the screen for a larger image.
I said that could be a good bet, the guys went away and bet and came back with huge smiles and their winning tickets and said 'Who is going to win the 10th race?'. Once again we called up Horsegrader and went to the Key Factors screen:
Well, they saw another Lone Speed horse and off they went to place another bet before I could tell them that it is tougher for a Lone Speed horse, #4 - Desert Blanc, in a Route race (1 1/4 miles for this race). Well, Desert Blanc came through with the win.
So after their second win they wanted the three of us to handicap the Belmont Stakes. I took a little different approach since all the Key Factors would be almost all green for every horse since it was a Grade 1 Stakes race. I brought up the Race Shape screen in Horsegrader:
Looking at the winning percentages and distance (1 1/2 miles) the track bias favored Stalkers (43%). Looking at the screen we saw two Stalkers - #3 - Union Rags and #9 - Paynter. If you watched the race you saw that Union Rags won by a neck over Paynter in an exciting stretch run. The guys didn't return after the race, but I sure hoped that they did a boxed bet with Union Rags and Paynter!
We had a nice little run of wins, and I did tell them that if I could pick the winner of every race then I wouldn't need to be doing this.
We'll dig deeper into the Horsegrader Race Shape screen in a future Blog entry.
Click on the screen for a larger image.
I said that could be a good bet, the guys went away and bet and came back with huge smiles and their winning tickets and said 'Who is going to win the 10th race?'. Once again we called up Horsegrader and went to the Key Factors screen:
Well, they saw another Lone Speed horse and off they went to place another bet before I could tell them that it is tougher for a Lone Speed horse, #4 - Desert Blanc, in a Route race (1 1/4 miles for this race). Well, Desert Blanc came through with the win.
So after their second win they wanted the three of us to handicap the Belmont Stakes. I took a little different approach since all the Key Factors would be almost all green for every horse since it was a Grade 1 Stakes race. I brought up the Race Shape screen in Horsegrader:
Looking at the winning percentages and distance (1 1/2 miles) the track bias favored Stalkers (43%). Looking at the screen we saw two Stalkers - #3 - Union Rags and #9 - Paynter. If you watched the race you saw that Union Rags won by a neck over Paynter in an exciting stretch run. The guys didn't return after the race, but I sure hoped that they did a boxed bet with Union Rags and Paynter!
We had a nice little run of wins, and I did tell them that if I could pick the winner of every race then I wouldn't need to be doing this.
We'll dig deeper into the Horsegrader Race Shape screen in a future Blog entry.
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Grade 1 Stake Races
I'll be at the Belmont Stakes this Saturday (June 9th) and possibly will be witnessing a Triple Crown winner. So, of course, I used Horsegrader to handicap the race and want to share my experience with you. Let's look at the Key Factors screen:
I bet you see the same thing that I see - lots of green. This makes perfect sense since a Grade 1 Stakes Race such as the Belmont Stakes attracts the best of the best. Best horses, best jockeys, best trainers, etc. So we need to dig a bit deeper and look at the percentages. Click on the image for larger view. In the larger view we can see that I'll Have Another has a dirt win percentage of 83%, Union Rags has a dirt win percentage of 57% and Paynter has a dirt win percentage of 50%. Unstoppable U has a dirt win percentage of 100% but we can see in Class column that Unstoppable U has never run at this Class of Race before.
So, you need to dig deeper (Speed Figures, Race Shape, Past Performances, etc.) when handicapping a Grade 1 Stakes Race because of all the green. Who is your pick to win the Belmont Stakes? Will I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown? If you are going to be at the Belmont Stakes make sure to stop by the Horsegrader booth and say Hi!
I bet you see the same thing that I see - lots of green. This makes perfect sense since a Grade 1 Stakes Race such as the Belmont Stakes attracts the best of the best. Best horses, best jockeys, best trainers, etc. So we need to dig a bit deeper and look at the percentages. Click on the image for larger view. In the larger view we can see that I'll Have Another has a dirt win percentage of 83%, Union Rags has a dirt win percentage of 57% and Paynter has a dirt win percentage of 50%. Unstoppable U has a dirt win percentage of 100% but we can see in Class column that Unstoppable U has never run at this Class of Race before.
So, you need to dig deeper (Speed Figures, Race Shape, Past Performances, etc.) when handicapping a Grade 1 Stakes Race because of all the green. Who is your pick to win the Belmont Stakes? Will I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown? If you are going to be at the Belmont Stakes make sure to stop by the Horsegrader booth and say Hi!
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Trainer/Jockey Combination Win Percentage
There is a factor that I look at when delving deeper into the horses in a race and that is the Trainer/Jockey Combination Win Percentage. I look at who has trained the horse, who will be riding the horse and importantly "How well have the Trainer and Jockey done together in the past?". With Horsegrader, I only need to look at a single cell for the answer. Let's look at the following Trainer screen snippet for an example:
From the Trainer screen snippet I can quickly determine that Bad Debt and Lighthouse Sound have a Trainer/Jockey Combination Win Percentage of 25% with a green thumbs up. The best in this race. And to prove my point, Bad Debt and Lighthouse Sound finished first and second!
One final tip before we conclude today is you can just hover over the horse's name to get the trainer and jockey for any horse as illustrated below:
With the hover-over popup I see that Michael J. Trombetta is riding Bad Debt. There is no need to go to the Jockey or Trainer screen if you were just looking for the name.
From the Trainer screen snippet I can quickly determine that Bad Debt and Lighthouse Sound have a Trainer/Jockey Combination Win Percentage of 25% with a green thumbs up. The best in this race. And to prove my point, Bad Debt and Lighthouse Sound finished first and second!
One final tip before we conclude today is you can just hover over the horse's name to get the trainer and jockey for any horse as illustrated below:
With the hover-over popup I see that Michael J. Trombetta is riding Bad Debt. There is no need to go to the Jockey or Trainer screen if you were just looking for the name.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Live Races & Practice Races
New and intermediate horse players tell me that they really like that they can learn how to handicap a horse race with Horsegrader risk free. With Practices Races you are able to learn how Horsegrader works to handicap a race that already has been run, place a practice wager, watch a video replay and then view the results. Now that you are "In the Know", the next question I'm asked is 'How do I put my new found skills to work handicapping live races, say the upcoming Belmont Stakes?'. You'll need to simply switch from Practice Races to Live Races. All you need to do is change your choice in the Status Drop-Down seen here:
Not sure what the difference is Practice Races and Live Races? Well, just hover over the Status Drop-Down and the following help will appear:
Of course you'll need to purchase a Race Card subscription to handicap live races. Just click on the Handicap Button for any race and the following pop-up window will appear if you don't have an active subscription:
Time to put your handicapping skills to work!
Not sure what the difference is Practice Races and Live Races? Well, just hover over the Status Drop-Down and the following help will appear:
Of course you'll need to purchase a Race Card subscription to handicap live races. Just click on the Handicap Button for any race and the following pop-up window will appear if you don't have an active subscription:
Time to put your handicapping skills to work!
Monday, May 7, 2012
Speed Figures - Advanced - The Grid
In the previous post I covered how to compare Speed Figures for specific horses. Now I could have selected every horse in the line graph, but I find that results in a cluttered screen. In this post I'm going to take it to the next level by using horsegrader to compare all the horses in the grid. In order to change views, I select the third option from the pull down menu on the Speed Figures Screen:
Let's look at the results together in the following image (just click on the image for a larger view):
When I first saw this screen, I thought 'Wow, this is a bunch of information!'. After a bit of understanding the legend, I learned how to make use of the screen. Each cell in the grid represents a race and the colors represent surface and days-past. Days-past is represented by the color of the line in each cell as follows:
Green - 45 days or less
Blue - 46 to 90 days
Yellow - 91 to 180 days
Red - 181 days or more
The legend for the surface is included in the speed figure text - I'll use a speed figure of 109:
109 - Black - Dirt
109 - Green - Turf
109 - Blue - Synthetic
By looking at the Speed Figures Grid image, I can quickly see that Johannesburg Smile's previous race had a 109 speed figure on dirt run 46 to 90 days ago and two races ago a 98 speed figure on turf also in 46 to 90 day range.
I now use this screen quite a lot to get a quick snapshot of the speed in the race and how current is each speed figure. At a glance I can see horses that have been raced a lot in the past 45 days, horses coming off a long layoff, horses with a speed figure anomaly, surface movement, etc.
I know that it'll take a bit of study to understand the Speed Figure Grid, but I believe that you'll agree that it is worth the effort.
Let's look at the results together in the following image (just click on the image for a larger view):
When I first saw this screen, I thought 'Wow, this is a bunch of information!'. After a bit of understanding the legend, I learned how to make use of the screen. Each cell in the grid represents a race and the colors represent surface and days-past. Days-past is represented by the color of the line in each cell as follows:
Green - 45 days or less
Blue - 46 to 90 days
Yellow - 91 to 180 days
Red - 181 days or more
The legend for the surface is included in the speed figure text - I'll use a speed figure of 109:
109 - Black - Dirt
109 - Green - Turf
109 - Blue - Synthetic
By looking at the Speed Figures Grid image, I can quickly see that Johannesburg Smile's previous race had a 109 speed figure on dirt run 46 to 90 days ago and two races ago a 98 speed figure on turf also in 46 to 90 day range.
I now use this screen quite a lot to get a quick snapshot of the speed in the race and how current is each speed figure. At a glance I can see horses that have been raced a lot in the past 45 days, horses coming off a long layoff, horses with a speed figure anomaly, surface movement, etc.
I know that it'll take a bit of study to understand the Speed Figure Grid, but I believe that you'll agree that it is worth the effort.
Speed Figures - Compare Horses
In the previous post I covered the basics of Speed Figures. In this post I'm going to take it to the next level by using RaceQuest to compare three horses. After looking at the basic speed figures, I decided to see how Socialsaul, Johannesburg Smile and Smokin Hero compare to each other speed-wise. In order to change views, I select the second option from the pull down menu on the Speed Figures Screen:
Let's look at the results together in the following image (just click on the image for a larger view):
It is very easy for me to see that Socialsaul, Johannesburg Smile and Smokin Hero have all recently run competitive speed figures - their most recent race is the rightmost race. I can also see at a glance that Socialsaul has only raced five times, Johannesburg Smile has been very consistent over time and Smokin Hero last four races have almost identical speed figures (100, 102, 104 & 104).
I'm going to end my entry today with a image of what happens when I hover the speed figure icons from three races past:
Pretty cool, don't you think?
Let's look at the results together in the following image (just click on the image for a larger view):
It is very easy for me to see that Socialsaul, Johannesburg Smile and Smokin Hero have all recently run competitive speed figures - their most recent race is the rightmost race. I can also see at a glance that Socialsaul has only raced five times, Johannesburg Smile has been very consistent over time and Smokin Hero last four races have almost identical speed figures (100, 102, 104 & 104).
I'm going to end my entry today with a image of what happens when I hover the speed figure icons from three races past:
Three races past, Socialsaul had a 102 speed figure on dirt at 1 mile 91 days ago, Johannesburg Smile had a 103 speed figure on dirt at 1 mile 97 days ago and Smokin Hero had a 102 speed figure on dirt at 6 furlongs 117 days ago. Which horse do you think would be my pick?
Pretty cool, don't you think?
Speed Figures - The Basics
I always review the speed figures when handicapping a race. Stating the obvious, the higher the speed figure the better. I'll provide some insight into speed figure basics in this post and then author a couple of follow-up posts highlighting speed figure options within horsegrader . Let's start with a horsegrader Speed Figures Screen Image (just click on the image for an expanded view):
I can take a look at the screen image and quickly see which horse has the Top Speed Figure. I can also quickly see the last speed figure, the best speed figure at the distance of the race, best speed figure on the race surface, and lifetime best speed figure for each horse. Notice that for three horses this will be their first race at this distance so they don't have any speed figures in the distance column. If I want, I can sort on any of the columns just by clicking on the column header.
I look at Speed Figures since my calculations have shown that the Top speed horse (Highest Speed Figure) wins 28.5% and is In-The-Money (ITM) 63.4% of the time. That is pretty impressive. I have noticed that there is some variance with surface and distance, which led to me doing the following calculations:
I can take a look at the screen image and quickly see which horse has the Top Speed Figure. I can also quickly see the last speed figure, the best speed figure at the distance of the race, best speed figure on the race surface, and lifetime best speed figure for each horse. Notice that for three horses this will be their first race at this distance so they don't have any speed figures in the distance column. If I want, I can sort on any of the columns just by clicking on the column header.
I look at Speed Figures since my calculations have shown that the Top speed horse (Highest Speed Figure) wins 28.5% and is In-The-Money (ITM) 63.4% of the time. That is pretty impressive. I have noticed that there is some variance with surface and distance, which led to me doing the following calculations:
- Dirt/Sprint: Wins - 29.6% and ITM - 64.8%
- Dirt/Route: Wins - 28.6% and ITM - 63.7%
- Turf/Sprint: Wins - 28.5% and ITM - 58.0%
- Turf/Route: Wins - 23.8% and ITM - 55.9%
Claiming Price, Purse and Conditions
I recently received the following comment: 'Thanks for such a cool product. I would like to see the claiming price of the race and conditions of the race when handicapping since it gives me an idea of the quality of the horses in the race. - Kathleen'.
There were two new values recently added to horsegrader -- Claiming Price & Purse on the Race Selection Screen -- that I find really useful when handicapping a race. Here is a screen snippet image from the Race Selection screen that highlights an enhanced display with a race from March 24 at Aqueduct:
I find it very helpful that I can now easily see the name of the stakes race and the purse. The next screen snippet image shows the claiming price:
Additional information is available today but somewhat hidden. To see the conditions of a race, just hover over the Class on the Race Selection screen with your mouse. Here is a sample:
I most certainly appreciate interest in horsegrader and please keep the suggestions and questions coming.
There were two new values recently added to horsegrader -- Claiming Price & Purse on the Race Selection Screen -- that I find really useful when handicapping a race. Here is a screen snippet image from the Race Selection screen that highlights an enhanced display with a race from March 24 at Aqueduct:
I find it very helpful that I can now easily see the name of the stakes race and the purse. The next screen snippet image shows the claiming price:
I most certainly appreciate interest in horsegrader and please keep the suggestions and questions coming.
How to read the Key Factors screen - Form (Previous Race Performance)
In a previous post I talked about how the "Class Ability" value for a horse in determined. One of the key takeaways from that post is that "Class Ability" looks at the horse's performance for the past year. Today I'm going to give you some insight into how the "Form" value is determined. Handicappers, myself included, want to now how a horse has done lately. Well, "Form" is how the horse did in their previous race.
If the horse ran a "bad" race the last time out I look for reasons that he will return to form after a correction or change. Likewise, I don't take for granted that a horse will follow-up a "good" race with another "good" race due to having run a taxing race, lacks recovery time, suffered an injury or is moving up in class.
Let's start by looking at Race 2 at Aqueduct on April 11th in the following condensed screen shot:
Here are the definitions:
Good (Green) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished In The Money (ITM), or within two lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within three lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Que Posse (1st of 7; 2 1/2 lengths ahead) meets this criteria in the above screen snippet.
Neutral (White) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the top 2/3 of the field, or within five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Arch Traveler (5th of 5, 3 lengths back) meets this criteria in the above screen snippet.
Bad (Red) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the bottom 1/3 of the field, or more than five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or more than seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Justin Phillip (6th of 6; 8 lengths back) meets this criteria in the above screen.
Not Enough Information (circle with the line) - Horse has not raced before; this is their first race.
If the horse ran a "bad" race the last time out I look for reasons that he will return to form after a correction or change. Likewise, I don't take for granted that a horse will follow-up a "good" race with another "good" race due to having run a taxing race, lacks recovery time, suffered an injury or is moving up in class.
Let's start by looking at Race 2 at Aqueduct on April 11th in the following condensed screen shot:
Here are the definitions:
Good (Green) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished In The Money (ITM), or within two lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within three lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Que Posse (1st of 7; 2 1/2 lengths ahead) meets this criteria in the above screen snippet.
Neutral (White) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the top 2/3 of the field, or within five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Arch Traveler (5th of 5, 3 lengths back) meets this criteria in the above screen snippet.
Bad (Red) -- In their last race the horse was in a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the bottom 1/3 of the field, or more than five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or more than seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Justin Phillip (6th of 6; 8 lengths back) meets this criteria in the above screen.
Not Enough Information (circle with the line) - Horse has not raced before; this is their first race.
How to read the Key Factors screen - Class Ability
I really like the horsegrader Key Factors screen since there is a tremendous amount of information. I really like that at a glance I can establish good (Green), bad (Red) or neutral for a given horse and a specific attribute. Today I'm going to give you some insight into how 'Class Ability' is determined. Let's start by looking at Race 9 at Aqueduct on March 14th in the following condensed screen shot:
Here are the definitions:
Good (Green) -- Within the last year the horse has run a race at the class level of the race today and finished In The Money (ITM), or within two lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within three lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Sweet Hot Toddy, Jolienne and Hillsboro Bay meet this criteria in the above screen.
Neutral (White) -- Within the last year the horse has run a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the top 2/3 of the field, or within five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Soccittomebaby meets this criteria in the above screen.
Bad (Red) -- Within the last year the horse has run a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the bottom 1/3 of the field, or more than five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or more than seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Lagniappe meets this criteria in the above screen.
Not Enough Information (circle with the line) - The horse has not run a race at the class level of the race today in the past year. Clean Jean meets this criteria
Here are the definitions:
Good (Green) -- Within the last year the horse has run a race at the class level of the race today and finished In The Money (ITM), or within two lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within three lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Sweet Hot Toddy, Jolienne and Hillsboro Bay meet this criteria in the above screen.
Neutral (White) -- Within the last year the horse has run a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the top 2/3 of the field, or within five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or within seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Soccittomebaby meets this criteria in the above screen.
Bad (Red) -- Within the last year the horse has run a race at the class level of the race today and finished in the bottom 1/3 of the field, or more than five lengths of the winner for a Sprint race or more than seven lengths of the winner for a Route race. You can see that Lagniappe meets this criteria in the above screen.
Not Enough Information (circle with the line) - The horse has not run a race at the class level of the race today in the past year. Clean Jean meets this criteria
Advanced Topic - Past Performances
One of the great things about horsegrader is it means all the work of deciphering the large amount of data contained in a racing form has already been done for me. However, there are times that I would like to see past performances for a couple of horses. To see the past performances just click on the arrow to left of the horse name as illustrated in the following screen image:
I suggest that you click on the above screen image for a detailed view. I really like the fact that horsegrader has more information available as my handicapping knowledge increases.
I suggest that you click on the above screen image for a detailed view. I really like the fact that horsegrader has more information available as my handicapping knowledge increases.
How to read the Key Factors screen - Race Surface
The track surface is something I consider when handicapping a race since some horses run better on dirt, some jockeys may be turf specialists and some trainers may have a great record on synthetic. From the key factors screen I quickly determine how the horse, jockey and trainer do for the surface of the specific race. Let's take a look.
I see that the trainer for Honey Mou (#6) has a positive 20% win percentage on dirt, the jockey has a positive 17% on dirt and that Honey Mou has won 1/4 (25%) of her races on dirt. Not bad at all. In Her Hey Day (#4) doesn't look as promising since she has an average record on dirt since her Record cell is average (white -- neither red or green) and two red cells for for Trainer (11%) and Jockey (7%).
What do you think?
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